039 
ACUS11 KWNS 312346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312345 
TXZ000-010115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1659
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely, IEM edited valid time.

Valid 010005Z - 010115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A storm or two may pose a risk for strong damaging winds
and some hail through this evening. Uncertainty remains about the
organization/severity of the storms.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the lee trough/dryline feature
through central Texas have intensified over the last 45 minutes. A
65 mph gust recorded near Colorado City, TX shows these storms have
the potential to produce occasional damaging wind gusts and perhaps
some hail. Steep low-level lapse rates, 8 to 9 C/km, from very warm
surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F downstream of the ongoing
storms will continue to support strong evaporational cooling and
robust downdrafts. Storm organization so far has remained modest,
with mostly multicellular structure noted. This is likely due to
weak vertical shear of only 20 kt. Decreasing buoyancy and the
limited vertical shear downstream may serve to limit greater severe
potential. Despite the uncertainty in storm longevity/severity, a
few strong updrafts may continue to propagate eastward through
sunset, with a risk for gusty outflow winds and hail.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31799986 31440068 31660132 32320111 33240031 33399994
            33389857 32939847 31799986 
