312 
ACUS11 KWNS 260208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260208 
MIZ000-WIZ000-260415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...

VALID 260208Z - 260415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 446.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD ESEWD INVOF A
W/E-ELONGATED...WAVY...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING APPROXIMATELY
ALONG THE WI/MI UPPER PENINSULA BORDER. WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
BUOYANCY IN PLACE IN THE ABSENCE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL AS OBSERVED FROM THE
00Z GRB RAOB. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT -- PRIMARILY FOCUSED AROUND
THE CONVECTION-MODULATED FRONT -- WILL LIKELY PROMOTE THE
MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...WHILE THIS ASCENT BECOMES
AUGMENTED BY DCVA PRECEDING AN APPROACHING COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...AS OBSERVED BY MQT/GRB VWP DATA AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED 00Z SOUNDING...FEATURES VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS
BELOW 3 KM AGL BENEATH AROUND 25-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORM STRUCTURES. DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY MINIMAL WELL N OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE MI UPPER PENINSULA WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER
THETA-E DEFICITS ARE BEING REINFORCED BENEATH THE STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD. SIMILARLY...THE SVR THREAT WILL GREATLY LESSEN BEHIND THE
ESEWD-MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NWRN WI OWING TO CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING AND RELATED BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.

..COHEN.. 07/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   44738786 45378992 45829078 46369061 46638962 46338801
            45868698 44738786 
