
@article{rogelj_paris_2016,
	title = {Paris {Agreement} climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °{C}},
	volume = {534},
	copyright = {2016 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1476-4687},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nature18307},
	doi = {10.1038/nature18307},
	abstract = {The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7609},
	urldate = {2018-11-19},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Rogelj, Joeri and den Elzen, Michel and Höhne, Niklas and Fransen, Taryn and Fekete, Hanna and Winkler, Harald and Schaeffer, Roberto and Sha, Fu and Riahi, Keywan and Meinshausen, Malte},
	month = jun,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {631--639}
}	

@article{gidden_global_2018,
	title = {Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in {CMIP}6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century},
	volume = {2018},
	url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/gmd-2018-266/},
	doi = {10.5194/gmd-2018-266},
	journal = {Geoscientific Model Development Discussions},
	author = {Gidden, M. J. and Riahi, K. and Smith, S. J. and Fujimori, S. and Luderer, G. and Kriegler, E. and van Vuuren, D. P. and van den Berg, M. and Feng, L. and Klein, D. and Calvin, K. and Doelman, J. C. and Frank, S. and Fricko, O. and Harmsen, M. and Hasegawa, T. and Havlik, P. and Hilaire, J. and Hoesly, R. and Horing, J. and Popp, A. and Stehfest, E. and Takahashi, K.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {1--42}
}

@article{oneill_scenario_2016,
	title = {The {Scenario} {Model} {Intercomparison} {Project} ({ScenarioMIP}) for {CMIP}6},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1991-9603},
	url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3461/2016/},
	doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016},
	abstract = {Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2018-04-26},
	journal = {Geosci. Model Dev.},
	author = {O'Neill, B. C. and Tebaldi, C. and van Vuuren, D. P. and Eyring, V. and Friedlingstein, P. and Hurtt, G. and Knutti, R. and Kriegler, E. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Lowe, J. and Meehl, G. A. and Moss, R. and Riahi, K. and Sanderson, B. M.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {3461--3482}
}


@article{riahi_shared_2017,
	title = {The {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways} and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: {An} overview},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {09593780},
	shorttitle = {The {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways} and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378016300681},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2017-04-26},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and O’Neill, Brian C. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Fricko, Oliver and Lutz, Wolfgang and Popp, Alexander and Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo and Kc, Samir and Leimbach, Marian and Jiang, Leiwen and Kram, Tom and Rao, Shilpa and Emmerling, Johannes and Ebi, Kristie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Da Silva, Lara Aleluia and Smith, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Gernaat, David and Masui, Toshihiko and Rogelj, Joeri and Strefler, Jessica and Drouet, Laurent and Krey, Volker and Luderer, Gunnar and Harmsen, Mathijs and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Baumstark, Lavinia and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Kainuma, Mikiko and Klimont, Zbigniew and Marangoni, Giacomo and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Tavoni, Massimo},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {153--168},
	file = {1-s2.0-S0959378016300681-main.pdf:C\:\\Users\\gidden\\Zotero\\storage\\PIZSIHA3\\1-s2.0-S0959378016300681-main.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@book{rogelj_global_nodate,
	edition = {In Press},
	title = {Global warming of 1.5°{C}. {An} {IPCC} {Special} {Report} on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°{C} above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty},
	author = {Rogelj, J. and Shindell, D. and Jiang, K. and Fifita, S. and Forster, P. and Ginzburg, V.}
}

@article{pyam_2018,
         title={pyam: analysis and visualization of assessment models},
	 DOI={10.5281/zenodo.1491662},
	 publisher={Zenodo},
	 author={Matthew J. Gidden and Daniel Huppmann},
	 year={2018},
	 month={Oct}
}

@misc{huppmann_notebooks_2018,
     author = {Huppmann, Daniel and Rogelj, Joeri and Kriegler, Elmar and Mundaca, Luis and Forster, Piers and Kobayashi, Shigeki and Séferian, Roland and Vilariño, María Virginia},
     title = {{Scenario analysis notebooks for the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C}},
	 DOI={10.5281/zenodo.1470489},
	 publisher={Zenodo},
     year = {2018}
}

@article{huppmann_ncc_2018,
	title = {A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °{C} research},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4},
	abstract = {Scenarios have supported assessments of the IPCC for decades. A new scenario ensemble and a suite of visualization and analysis tools is now made available alongside the IPCC 1.5 °C Special Report to improve transparency and re-use of scenario data across research communities.},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Huppmann, Daniel and Rogelj, Joeri and Kriegler, Elmar and Krey, Volker and Riahi, Keywan},
	month = oct,
	year = {2018}
}
